Updated on Saturday 16 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 87530 (+1632) 1442824 (+25050) 250747 (+4333) 1104547 (+19085)
United Kingdom 34078 (+385) 238004 (+3564) 1047 (+4) 202879 (+3175)
Italy 31610 (+242) 223885 (+789) 120205 (+4917) 72070 (-4370)
France 27532 (+104) 179630 (+636) 60562 (+843) 91536 (-311)
Spain 27459 (+138) 230183 (+643) 144783 (+1409) 57941 (-904)
Brazil 14962 (+963) 220291 (+17126) 84970 (+5491) 120359 (+10672)
Belgium 8959 (+56) 54644 (+356) 14301 (+190) 31384 (+110)
Germany 7897 (+13) 175233 (+755) 151597 (+1297) 15739 (-555)
Iran 6902 (+48) 116635 (+2102) 91836 (+1297) 17897 (+757)
Canada 5679 (+87) 75959 (+1178) 36908 (+804) 33372 (+287)
Netherlands 5662 (+53) 43880 (+200) 159 (+0) 38059 (+147)
Mexico 4767 (+290) 45032 (+2437) 30451 (+1976) 9814 (+171)
China 4637 (+0) 84038 (+9) 79281 (+20) 120 (-11)
Turkey 4055 (+48) 146457 (+1708) 106133 (+2103) 36269 (-443)
Sweden 3646 (+117) 29207 (+625) 4971 (+0) 20590 (+508)
India 2753 (+104) 85784 (+3787) 30258 (+2289) 52773 (+1394)
Ecuador 2594 (+256) 31467 (+965) 3433 (+0) 25440 (+709)
Russia 2418 (+113) 262843 (+10598) 58226 (+4696) 202199 (+5789)
Peru 2392 (+125) 84495 (+3891) 27147 (+1996) 54956 (+1770)
Switzerland 1878 (+6) 30514 (+51) 27100 (+0) 1536 (+45)
Ireland 1518 (+12) 23956 (+129) 19470 (+0) 2968 (+117)
Portugal 1190 (+6) 28583 (+264) 3328 (+130) 24065 (+128)
Indonesia 1076 (+33) 16496 (+490) 3803 (+285) 11617 (+172)
Romania 1070 (+17) 16437 (+190) 9370 (+317) 5997 (-144)
Poland 907 (+24) 18016 (+401) 6918 (+222) 10191 (+155)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 303029 (+5248) 4458309 (+100175) 1557786 (+49154)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 303223 ( +3404) 4481401 ( +68715) 1577613 ( +36018)
Sun 17 May 2020 306413 ( +3190) 4547141 ( +65740) 1612037 ( +34424)
Mon 18 May 2020 309393 ( +2980) 4609822 ( +62682) 1644797 ( +32760)
Tue 19 May 2020 312167 ( +2775) 4669396 ( +59573) 1675846 ( +31049)
Wed 20 May 2020 314744 ( +2577) 4725840 ( +56444) 1705160 ( +29314)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 4637 (+0) 84038 (+9) 79281 (+20)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84037 ( +2) 77981 ( +0)
Sun 17 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84039 ( +2) 77981 ( +0)
Mon 18 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84040 ( +2) 77982 ( +0)
Tue 19 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84042 ( +1) 77982 ( +0)
Wed 20 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84043 ( +1) 77982 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 27459 (+138) 230183 (+643) 144783 (+1409)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 27172 ( +69) 227022 ( +134) 144915 ( +1176)
Sun 17 May 2020 27235 ( +62) 227129 ( +107) 145977 ( +1062)
Mon 18 May 2020 27290 ( +56) 227216 ( +87) 146932 ( +955)
Tue 19 May 2020 27340 ( +50) 227288 ( +72) 147790 ( +858)
Wed 20 May 2020 27384 ( +44) 227349 ( +61) 148558 ( +768)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 31610 (+242) 223885 (+789) 120205 (+4917)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 31269 ( +94) 222603 ( +477) 118381 ( +2194)
Sun 17 May 2020 31355 ( +86) 223036 ( +433) 120496 ( +2115)
Mon 18 May 2020 31432 ( +78) 223429 ( +393) 122530 ( +2035)
Tue 19 May 2020 31503 ( +71) 223786 ( +357) 124484 ( +1954)
Wed 20 May 2020 31567 ( +64) 224109 ( +323) 126356 ( +1872)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 34078 (+385) 238004 (+3564) 1047 (+4)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 33852 ( +223) 230479 ( +1723) 1318 ( +48)
Sun 17 May 2020 34053 ( +201) 232062 ( +1583) 1367 ( +50)
Mon 18 May 2020 34233 ( +181) 233515 ( +1453) 1419 ( +52)
Tue 19 May 2020 34395 ( +162) 234848 ( +1332) 1473 ( +54)
Wed 20 May 2020 34540 ( +145) 236068 ( +1220) 1528 ( +56)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 87530 (+1632) 1442824 (+25050) 250747 (+4333)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 86847 ( +1059) 1435571 ( +13958) 256804 ( +5119)
Sun 17 May 2020 87857 ( +1009) 1448420 ( +12848) 261614 ( +4809)
Mon 18 May 2020 88818 ( +962) 1460214 ( +11794) 266118 ( +4504)
Tue 19 May 2020 89734 ( +915) 1471013 ( +10799) 270325 ( +4207)
Wed 20 May 2020 90604 ( +871) 1480879 ( +9866) 274245 ( +3919)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 27532 (+104) 179630 (+636) 60562 (+843)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 27238 ( +79) 173956 ( +26) 57375 ( +184)
Sun 17 May 2020 27309 ( +71) 173977 ( +21) 57540 ( +165)
Mon 18 May 2020 27372 ( +63) 173994 ( +17) 57688 ( +148)
Tue 19 May 2020 27429 ( +56) 174009 ( +14) 57821 ( +133)
Wed 20 May 2020 27479 ( +50) 174020 ( +12) 57940 ( +119)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 7897 (+13) 175233 (+755) 151597 (+1297)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 7765 ( +27) 167666 ( +74) 151427 ( +989)
Sun 17 May 2020 7789 ( +24) 167730 ( +64) 152350 ( +923)
Mon 18 May 2020 7811 ( +22) 167787 ( +56) 153212 ( +861)
Tue 19 May 2020 7830 ( +19) 167836 ( +49) 154015 ( +803)
Wed 20 May 2020 7848 ( +17) 167879 ( +43) 154763 ( +749)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 5662 (+53) 43880 (+200) 159 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 5608 ( +20) 43280 ( +78) nan ( +nan)
Sun 17 May 2020 5626 ( +17) 43349 ( +70) nan ( +nan)
Mon 18 May 2020 5641 ( +16) 43411 ( +62) nan ( +nan)
Tue 19 May 2020 5655 ( +14) 43466 ( +55) nan ( +nan)
Wed 20 May 2020 5667 ( +12) 43515 ( +49) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 8959 (+56) 54644 (+356) 14301 (+190)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 9001 ( +48) 53154 ( +100) 14160 ( +78)
Sun 17 May 2020 9045 ( +43) 53244 ( +89) 14230 ( +70)
Mon 18 May 2020 9083 ( +39) 53323 ( +80) 14294 ( +63)
Tue 19 May 2020 9118 ( +35) 53394 ( +71) 14350 ( +57)
Wed 20 May 2020 9149 ( +31) 53457 ( +63) 14401 ( +51)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 3646 (+117) 29207 (+625) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 3558 ( +45) 29301 ( +443) 5242 ( +13)
Sun 17 May 2020 3601 ( +43) 29726 ( +424) 5251 ( +9)
Mon 18 May 2020 3642 ( +41) 30131 ( +405) 5257 ( +6)
Tue 19 May 2020 3680 ( +39) 30517 ( +386) 5261 ( +4)
Wed 20 May 2020 3717 ( +37) 30884 ( +367) 5263 ( +3)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 907 (+24) 18016 (+401) 6918 (+222)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 893 ( +12) 18076 ( +291) 7091 ( +221)
Sun 17 May 2020 904 ( +11) 18356 ( +279) 7306 ( +215)
Mon 18 May 2020 915 ( +11) 18623 ( +267) 7513 ( +208)
Tue 19 May 2020 925 ( +10) 18877 ( +254) 7713 ( +200)
Wed 20 May 2020 934 ( +10) 19118 ( +241) 7906 ( +193)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 1878 (+6) 30514 (+51) 27100 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 1852 ( +3) 30211 ( +10) 27080 ( +73)
Sun 17 May 2020 1855 ( +2) 30220 ( +9) 27144 ( +64)
Mon 18 May 2020 1857 ( +2) 30227 ( +8) 27200 ( +56)
Tue 19 May 2020 1859 ( +2) 30234 ( +7) 27248 ( +49)
Wed 20 May 2020 1861 ( +2) 30240 ( +6) 27291 ( +42)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 14962 (+963) 220291 (+17126) 84970 (+5491)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 15281 ( +680) 225178 ( +10971) 82921 ( +2449)
Sun 17 May 2020 15957 ( +676) 236297 ( +11120) 85249 ( +2328)
Mon 18 May 2020 16626 ( +669) 247528 ( +11231) 87452 ( +2203)
Tue 19 May 2020 17285 ( +659) 258830 ( +11302) 89527 ( +2075)
Wed 20 May 2020 17932 ( +647) 270164 ( +11334) 91474 ( +1947)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 15 May 2020 6902 (+48) 116635 (+2102) 91836 (+1297)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 16 May 2020 6830 ( +27) 106540 ( +252) 88843 ( +407)
Sun 17 May 2020 6855 ( +25) 106771 ( +232) 89217 ( +374)
Mon 18 May 2020 6878 ( +23) 106984 ( +213) 89562 ( +345)
Tue 19 May 2020 6900 ( +21) 107179 ( +195) 89879 ( +317)
Wed 20 May 2020 6919 ( +20) 107358 ( +179) 90170 ( +292)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.